Category: Sustainability

There’s plenty of evidence linking our human activities climate change. Over the last decade we’re also moving from projections about change to observation of changes.

The most recent example in Australia is the Weather Bureau and CSIRO State of the Climate report.

It finds all of Australia has experienced warming over the past 50 years.

It’s a trend that continues. Australian average temperatures are projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.5 ºC by 2030. If global greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels, warming is projected to be in the range of 2.2 to 5.0 ºC by 2070.

The picture shows average temperature rises from 1960 to 2009. Source: State of the Climate.

Figures released by the Climate Group show Australian emissions from energy use across four states – New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria – fell 1.6 per cent over the past three months. These three months of summer often see big jumps in power use. It’s the hottest time of the year, air conditioners are running full bore and this Australian summer was hotter than average.

Cut energy use and you cut your costs. That is a lot of these sorts of changes are profitable. The big picture is if we put some of the profits into generating renewable energy, Australia could cut emissions 35% by 2030 – at no cost! For details on how see the McKinsey Greenhouse Gas cost curves.

But can you really make this change? The picture shows a recent addition at my house – a pergola shading north facing windows. The heat reflective panels (opaque) are for summer. When the sun is lower in winter is will warm the house through the clear panels on the left.

The cost? This was financed with an Australian Government Green Loan. The monthly payments on this loan for summer are approximately equal to the power we saved by not using the air conditioning. The bonus – the north facing rooms in the house are noticeably cooler and, in a couple of years, we’ll be banking the savings!

It doesn’t matter what you think about climate science and scepticism… it still makes compelling sense to cut our carbon emissions.

That’s the message sitting behind Amory Lovins’ Eight Convenient Climate Truths. Amory says our opinions about climate science shouldn’t change what you should do about energy.

Nor should we argue about the cost to the economy or if it’s worth paying to protect the climate. Protecting the climate is not costly but profitable.

The full eight convenient truths are on the Rocky Mountains Institute website.

Our message to government and businesses is clear. Act now, says Richard Branson.

He’s featured in the forward to the UK’s Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security

The credit crunch in 2008 stressed government and businesses to the extreme. Richard says The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare.

It’s a report on the end of cheap oil. The authors urge action: We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher and more volatile and where oil price shocks have the potential to destabilise economic, political and social activity.

Download the full report here

In just one year, the number of Australians considering climate change when they buy doubled. Nearly half (47 percent) of people surveyed in the Ipsos-Eureka 2009 Climate Change report nominate purchasing decisions as a main behaviour undertaken to reduce emissions.

This trend is supported by some hard statistics. An Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) survey finds from 2007 to 2008 the number of Australian households buying green/renewable electricity increased – significantly!

The ABS records a 51 percent jump in the quantity of green power sold. The latest national figures show greenpower customers are approaching a million households in Australia.

Picture: Quote from Ipsos-Eureka Climate Change report

2009 is Australia’s second warmest year ever since 1910.

That’s the finding from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology who say that 2009 will be remembered for extreme bushfires, dust-storms, lingering rainfall deficiencies, areas of flooding and record-breaking heatwaves.

The graph shows temperature change, averaged over 10 years, the grey bars. It’s a consistent picture worldwide – watch the world warm in these NASA animations from 1880 to 2006.

Having trouble with lots of carbon numbers and Copenhagen claims? A solution is the World Bank’s Data Visualizer. It does a great job in turning numbers into pictures.

It’s hard to visualise greenhouse gas emissions, and more difficult still to conceptualise the numbers over time, across countries and against other important measures like economy and health. In the image, the bubble size is total emission plotted against economy (horizontal) and per person emissions (vertical).

Go to the Data Visualizer site, chose what you want to compare – from the left hand side menu – and then press play and watch the changes over time.

And a suggestion for the World Bank. Add future scenarios to this visualiser. It would be great to see the data map a path for contraction of total greenhouse emissions and, convergence to equivalent per person emissions, in the future.

Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France with his high powered Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (CMEPSP – including Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen and Jean-Paul Fitoussi) form the latest group to join the call for a better measure of progress than GDP.

The CMEPSP’s report (3Mb pdf) highlights current well-being alongside the assessment of sustainability – whether this well-being can last over time. It’s recommendations focus on changing our emphasis from measuring economic production to quality of life, equity and our well being over time and into the future.

It’s not a new argument – famous examples included Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness, Redefining Progress and, The New Economics Foundation. But it is a very prominent call for change.

Nicolas Sarkozy is encouraging a great revolution to economic and well being measurement. Others in France however see GDP here for a long time into the future. GDP criticisms include the non measurement of state expenditure, such as some public health and, the positive value it places on destructive economic activity.

Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few argues The Wisdom of the Crowds. If this is the case and, to the extent twitter is representative of the Australian population, Joe Hockey should pay attention to the twitter results on his climate change question. He twittered hey team re The ETS. Give me your views please… on Friday.

A random sample of responses to his climate change question finds:

• 51.6% say support the ETS and/or don’t sell out on your previous support for these laws
• 43.2% say no ETS and/or delay it, it’s just a tax
• 2.1% say become the leader, presumably implicitly saying no to the ETS as well
• 3.2% say twitter discussion about this is silly

Details of this sample are here.

Joe Hockey asked this question as the opposition liberal party is pushing him to become leader. This change will overturn his previous position – and the party’s decision last week – to take action on climate change by passing the Australian emissions trading legislation (ETS).

And the current leaders views? “This is not a game . . . We’re talking about the future of our planet. We’re talking about whether we, the Liberal Party, will want to be a credible, progressive political movement of the 21st century” 27/11/09 Malcolm Turnbull quoted in The Age.

Alongside Barak Obama there’s a second Noble prize surprise this year – Elinor Ostrom for the Economics Nobel Prize.*

Elinor is a groundbreaking economics win as her work covers how humans look after shared resources – we often collaborate to protect environments such as water resources and fisheries. That is humans do not inevitably act as ‘economically rational’ – out to maximise our profit.

It’s often assumed that without outside intervention we will inevitably see a tragedy of the commons. This tragedy occurs as individuals overuse resources – e.g. the global atmosphere’s ability to absorb carbon – reducing the quality of life for everyone.

In fact there are many examples where people do collaborate and can achieve far better outcomes than purely government action. The graph above is one such example. It compares the lobster catch in Maine (community driven management – red line) with fish (government management – blue line).

So what do we need for a triumph of the commons? Mark van Vugt’s recipe for success is here.

Image: Comparison of landings of ground fish in Maine and lobsters. Source: The Struggle to Govern the Commons, Thomas Dietz,Elinor Ostrom and, Paul C. Stern Science | * The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2009